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It is difficult to make strategic predictions about new India

 Strategic predictions about new India

Strategic predictions about new India

The captured pilot of the Indian Air Force has now returned, there has been a slight reduction in shelling along the Line of Control and the Indian Army has committed to maintaining peace and stability in the region. However, another incident like the Pulwama attack could trigger a new round of cross-border tension. In such a situation, it would be correct to assess whether there has been any change in the strategic scenario due to India's airstrike?

First, the abandonment of India's 'strategic restraint' has brought about a drastic change. Ever since the Pulwama attack, Pakistan's Prime Minister Imran Khan has been sending a message to India that, by showing restraint, a dialogue can be found out. Imran spoke of restraint even after an Indian MiG-21 aircraft was shot down and a pilot was caught. The very next day, Imran offered to return the pilot, taking the 'initiative for peace'. It has to be kept in mind that the leader of Pakistan has suddenly started talking logically. The leader of India is considered to be someone whom no one can guess. Pakistan's 'thought-out irrationality' strategy is over now. India's strategic restraint has been replaced by 'assured resistance'.

However, the severity of this change is difficult to assess. Since 1947, India has played the role of a rational and responsible party in every conflict with Pakistan. He sent his army to Kashmir in October 1947 only when Maharaja Hari Singh signed the merger treaty. At the beginning of 1965, India showed such restraint on the actions of Pakistan in Kutch that President Ayub Khan accepted that there would not be much resistance to the Pakistani army's entry into Kashmir. In 1999, India had shown similar restraint when repulsing Pakistani infiltrators from Kargil. India also showed restraint in a long period of cross-border terrorism and insurgency. After the terrorist attack on Parliament in the year 2001-02, after deploying his army on the border, India withdrew it using discretion. Soon India adopted the 'cold start' doctrine which provides for the entry of forces into Pakistan in the event of any provocation. But the deployment of the Pakistan Army and nuclear weapons at the frontline tied the hands of Indian policy-makers.

Throughout the period, the Pak military headquarters has tried to make India feel that it will not use discretion when responding to any military action on behalf of India. He kept giving such indications that he would not miss the use of nuclear weapons if India could not be stopped. Although India has adopted the principle of widespread nuclear deterrence in the event of a nuclear attack, no one in Pakistan believes that India will ever take such a step.

predictions about new India

But now all these perceptions are a thing of the past. India too has now shown its undeniable stance and has shown the political will to teach a lesson to the terrorists. India can move beyond counter-firing and surgical strikes to think about options like airpower and perhaps naval power. Due to this, the old beliefs of Pakistan have been destroyed. He is afraid of getting a strong response to the attacks on Indian bases.

Secondly, India has to show capability with its intention. It is a matter of regret that questions are being raised over the demolition of the terrorist hideout in Balakot. The Air Force chief objected to this, saying that 'counting the dead bodies is not the work of the Air Force'. But the assessment of this damage through aircraft cameras, satellite photographs, unmanned aerial devices and ground agents is important so that India can show the whole world about its capability to carry out such attacks. Questions are also being raised over the downing of Pakistan's advanced aircraft F-16 by India's MiG-21 aircraft. However, even in this age of technology, it is worrying not to present such evidence.

To move on the path of retaliatory attacks, India must also give it space in its military doctrine, strategy and priority. We will also be able to develop a strong ability to counter any provocations in a restrained manner by giving priority to cross-border punitive attacks.

The third and perhaps most important point, India should remember that Kashmir is at the root of this crisis as before. The sense of isolation within the Kashmiri people has increased unexpectedly in the last five years. The BJP's efforts to introduce its Hindutvaism across the country have aroused the Muslims of the valley. The killing of Muslims at the hands of cow vigilantes, homecoming, the prohibition of namaz in public places and the love jihad is being described by Kashmiris as a means of legitimizing the two-nation doctrine.

In such a situation, there is a need to heal the wounds of the Kashmiri people, but the government is considering the Kashmir dispute as just a matter of security. In the last five years, violence has increased in the valley and now unarmed Kashmiris are also standing in front of the security forces. As long as Kashmir continues to boil, there will be a possibility of an attack like Pulwama recurring and increasing tension with Pakistan. Only by negotiation can this anger be pacified.

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